经济学祖师爷向自尊开了枪，道德情操论的心灵鸡汤 mobi 下载 网盘 caj lrf pdf txt 阿里云

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在做了大学教授之后，丹尼尔告诉自己的学生，“当别人说到某件事时，不要去想它是不是真的，而要想它在什么情况下会成为真的”。这也正是他在知识面前表现出的一种本能，是他进行思考时自然而然迈出的第一步：听取别人说的每一句话，尽量不去推翻它，而是试着从中寻找意义。

丹尼尔说：“我对心理学感兴趣其实是为了走进哲学，为了看懂这个世界，我试着去研究为何人们，尤其是我自己，会以这样的方式看待世界。那个时候，我已经不关心上帝是否存在这样的问题，我更想知道为什么人们会相信上帝的存在。我也不关心在冲突中谁是谁非，我只想了解愤怒的情绪是如何出现的。这正是心理学家要解决的问题！”

即便是精通统计学、了解概率论的专家，都没有意识到小样本在代表大群组时所具有的差异性，即样本量越小，其准确反映整体特质的可能性就越低。人们总以为样本能够自我调节，直至可以准确反映它所代表的整体。在大群组中，由于大数定律的影响，其预测准确性是可以得到保障的。假如你抛掷硬币多达1000次，那么最终正面朝上和反面朝上的次数基本会相等；而抛掷10次时，结果就不尽然了。出于说不清道不明的原因，人们就是看不到这一点。“人们对于随机取样所抱的态度似乎是符合小数定律的。也就是说，他们认为小样本和大样本一样都能反映出它所代表的整体的特性。”丹尼尔和阿莫斯在文中写道。

knowledge is literally prediction," said Morey. "Knowledge is anything that increases your ability to predict the outcome. Literally everything you do you're trying to predict the right thing. Most people just do it subconsciously."

Amos had his own theory, which he called "features of similarity." He argued that when people compared two things, and judged their similarity, they were essentially making a list of features. These features are simply what they notice about the objects. They count up the noticeable features shared by two objects: the more they share, the more similar they are; the more they don't share, the more dissimilar they are. Not all objects have the same number of noticeable features: New York City had more of them than Tel Aviv, for instance.

From his stint as a consultant he learned something valuable, however. It seemed to him that a big part of a consultant's job was to feign total certainty about uncertain things.

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