中东欧与欧盟The Central and Eastern European Countries and the European Union mobi 下载 网盘 caj lrf pdf txt 阿里云

The accession of ten new members to the European Union on May 1st 2004 is among the most significant developments in the history of European integration. Based upon studies conducted by the European Forecasting Network, this book analyses key aspects of the impact of this recent enlargement with reference to eight of the ten new Member States, namely the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs). It demonstrates that the enlargement could have profound consequences on both the new Member States and on the pre-accession members of the Union, given the unparalleled magnitude of the enlargement, the fact that the CEECs have levels of prosperity and economic development well below the Union average, and their history of participation in centrally planned regimes. The contributions examine regional policy, the debate about accession to the EMU, the macroeconomic trajectories of the Central and Eastern European economies to date and their likely future development.

List of figures

List of tables

Notes on the contributors

Acknowledgments

Introduction

MICHAEL ARTIS, ANINDYA BANERJEE AND

MASSIMILIANO MARCELLINO

1 New Member States: macroeconomic outlook and forecasts

　EMILIO ROSSI AND ZBYSZKO TABERNACKI

　　1.1 The recent economic recovery in the new Member States

1.2 Inflation's temporary resurgence not yet a concern

1.3 The rush to the euro: a dose of realism

1.4 Fiscal challenges and interest rate convergence

1.5 Country overviews

　　 1.5.1 Poland's expansion to continue beyond 2005

　　 1.5.2 The Czech Republic to rely on external demandand investment

　　 1.5.3 Hungary's manufacturing sector and investment are driving accelerated growth

　　 1.5.4 Fiscal reforms place Slovakia as the most progressive country in Central Europe

　　 1.5.5 Slovenia looks to net exports to boost growth

　　 1.5.6 The Baltic again to set the pace for economic growth among the new Member States

　　 1.5.7 Cyprus and Malta

2　The asymmetric impact of enlargement on old and　new Member States: a general equilibrium approach

　MOHAMED HEDI BCHIR, LIONEL FONTAGNIE AND　PAOLO ZANGHIERI

　 2.1 Introduction

　 2.2 The pre-enlargement situation

　 2.3 General equilibrium dimensions of enlargement

2.4 From trade liberalization to deep economic integration

　　　2.4.1 'Trade liberalization'

　　 2.4.2 'Market integration'

　　 2.4.3 'Accession'

　　 2.4.4 Comparison of dynamics across scenarios

2.5 Comparison with other studies using a similar methodology

　 2.6 Conclusions

　References

3　Changes in the spatial distribution patterns of European regional activity: the enlargements of the mid-1980s and 2004

　TONI MORA, ESTHER VAY AND JORDI SURINACH

　 3.1 Introduction

3.2 Spatial agglomeration models: theoretical aspects and empirical evidence

　　 3.2.1 What have we learned from spatial models?

　　 3.2.2 What does the previous evidence of empirical spatial specialisation suggest?

3.3 Defining data and indices

3.4 Analysis of the distribution of the evolution of spatial activity, 1985 95

3.5 The effects of the new enlargement on the distribution of activity: from EU-15 to EU-27

3.6 Conclusions

　References

4 Forecasting macroeconomic variables for the new Member States

　ANINDYA BANERJEE, MASSIMILIANO MARCELLINO AND IGOR MASTEN

　 4.1 Introduction

4.2 Methodology

　　 4.2.1 Forecasting models

　　 4.2.2 Forecast comparison

4.3 The data

4.4 Forecasting results

　　　4.4.1 The Czech Republic

　 4.4.2 Hungary

　 4.4.3 Poland

　 4.4.4 Slovakia

　 4.4.5 Slovenia

　 4.4.6 The role of Euro area information

　 4.4.7 I(2) prices, wages and money

4.5 Conclusions

References

5 The cyclial experience of the new Member States

6 Demand and supply shocks in the new Member States

7 Monetary transmission in the new Member States

8 Promoting fiscal restraint in three Central European

9 Current account dynamics in the new member States

10 Challenges to banking sector stability in selected new Member States

11 Infrastructure investments as a tool for regional

12 TFP,costs and public infrastructure:an equivocal relationship

13 Regional pllicies after the EU enlargement

Index

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书籍介绍

The accession of ten new members to the European Union on May 1st 2004 was among the most significant developments in the history of European integration. Based upon studies conducted by the European Forecasting Network, this 2006 book analysed key aspects of the impact of this enlargement with reference to eight of the ten new Member States, namely the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs). It demonstrated that the enlargement had the potential to create profound consequences for both the new Member States and the pre-accession members of the Union, given the unparalleled magnitude of the enlargement, the fact that the CEECs had levels of prosperity and economic development well below the Union average, and their history of participation in centrally planned regimes. The contributions examined regional policy, the debate about accession to the EMU, the macroeconomic trajectories of the Central and Eastern European economies and their likely development.